Thin Edges and Supreme Confidence

Good morning friends.

I wish I had a healthy amount of news to report but like most people in this day and age I am fairly work obsessed.

Non work related news. Im engaged to a loving, wonderful woman who has OCD over cleaning and organizing. It's 13 months out from our wedding and she's going to wedding expos and losing it slowly.

She watches me losing my mind so often (end game variance) that I think me seeing this side of her, I find it strangely amusing. The always calm, never rattled is obsessed over finding the right venue, caterer and whether her niece is really a capable photographer.

I've began playing in a private mid stakes mixed game recently and I'm the oldest person invited. I watch guys half my age try very bold bluffs, raise very thin raises and seemingly are unconscious to the variance they face.

I honestly like watching the maniacs knowing that I was once them but also not completely removed to knowing many will go bust and some I have determined are fine with that decision.

I became friends with a twitter personality and he bets NBA for a living. It was very clear in our early messages he was very young into his betting career. Not just in his age but also his extremely high level of confidence.

However both the mixed game which I am a small winner and these conversations with more youthful versions of NBA handicapper who is only data driven handicapper makes me wonder what I was like in my mid 20s as a gambler.

I know that I had absolutely horrible bankroll management, always in make up (debt) with a father figure/friend and treated losing as acceptable as long as it was fun or a experience of some kind, I'm pretty sure.

I spoke with someone I trust who also bets NBA at the highest limits possible and we were discussing the mindset of so many younger guys nowadays and how different it is to maybe even 5 years ago.

There was another time where the worst thing that could happen as a bettor is that anyone suspected you were winning a lot.

Nowadays it seems every other guy I've never heard of is just putting all of his wins and info on social media (whether it's truthful or not, no clue) but I wonder how this helps with taxes, safety and how won't people just try to duplicate his edge in whatever market he speaks intelligently on.

The one constant that we are impressed by of the younger generation of seemingly sharp guys out there is the just giving away info and edges. The absolute no filter of what they bet, why and when... Give them a mic, a newsletter or a YouTube channel. It's crazy as hell to me.

Not kidding when I first started making my notebooks I would send one copy to Dink but wouldn't have a single number anywhere, not a single page had a power rating or base total. He knew my social security number and I had access to his grande and cris accounts with 500k credit but no chance he was going to have my power numbers, haha.

The thing that really reverberates for me out of these interactions is that the kids are having fun. Maybe that's where a large portion of pro gamblers are losing it.

I remember I used to make a number for every game in MLB for the entire week M-Sun every Sunday night and that number was concrete. Any half run or 10 cent discrepancy was a bet. I would bet while asleep, not a care in the world just knew to beat the close.

I couldn't afford donbest and would use SBRodds for my lines and refresh covers while I sweat my bets. Completely unfazed win or lose back then. Maybe that was key?

I have to admit that I'm trying my hardest to stay off X as it just puts me in such a negative headspace. I have to use it for injury notifications but the scrolling 2 hours a day had to come to a end.

I have a crazy uncle. Gary is a religious, super Christian but also just happens to own some Nazi memorabilia and will argue over absolutely anything, for hours. Pick a topic and he will pick the disagreement.

It's fun to see Gary once a year on Thanksgiving and make fun of him with the rest of your family on July 4th (he's obviously only invited to one Holiday a year!) but in 2025.

The world is full of Gary's and it doesn't matter if it's world politics, a album review, the tired anti tout tirades, clv is meaningless shenanigans, every trade in the NBA...

Everyone is a global strategist, a master adviser to the White House, Billy Walters gambling advisor or Ian Cohen of whatever genre of music needs critiqued and a NBA GM.

I can talk at a expert level about maybe 3 things in life. I haven't won a argument with my mother in 46 years, haven't won one in my own house in 3 and certainly not foolish to attempt to change anyone's mind who already has it made up.

Here are my NBA hot takes... Knicks are worst with Robinson back.

Cleveland is legit level of scary good but Boston is just playing with their food until they don't have to.

Lakers and Golden State are not as good as Dallas, Minnesota, Denver in the playoffs with current rosters but might be a better playoff team than OKC in my eyes.

Portland would be a good playoff/playin team if they had any other coach in the league.

The tanking for Flagg when it sounds like he's on the fence about coming to the NBA right away if another instance of why the league is in tough shape for viewers and fans.

Also why doesnt the NBA adopt what the NFL has and flex games? No one cares about Philly/San Antonio/Phoenix who are tanking, soft tanking and not a serious team in any way.

My college football take is that the networks will win and a super league will be created in 5 years and the g5 and non contenders in the talking heads eyes will be largely ignored and eventually canabalize all popularity within the sport. The playoffs will be 6 weeks and the intrique will grow quieter every year... I'll still have a edge thankfully.

I hope that you have won every end game for a week and that you are as happy as you have been in ages in every facet of life. You are riding small edges in every area possible with supreme confidence.

Thank you for the space as always. Your friend, Eddie