The Chef Wondered From Kitchen to Kitchen

The phone rang and it was that name that startles me. I wasn't betting anything but my mover was calling?

He wanted to know if anyone was winning. Nba, MLB originators were struggling and he was asking out loud what I was wondering internally.

Sometimes I dig around a market by just using the screen and some quick data and other times I will just say, "fuck it' and get the pen and paper out and see what the market is up to in something like MLB.

I was acutely aware that the MLB market had some very suspicious moves every morning and after a few days it was clear they were not at all fakes but a group was insanely off market early June.

They were convinced very much so that they were right siding and I suspected it was steam follows moving so heavily after the initial hit only to confirm that it was not at all. They were tripping over themselves to bet and bet some more. It looked like chasing losses to me but again, I was wrong.

This had happened in NBA with a different group earlier in the year. They had a different subset of what injuries were valued at and went bonkers for around 2 weeks, lost and settled down.

This is unique and somewhat new. To move a MLB side 30 cents isn't the easiest of tasks nor is moving a nba total 3 points but in both cases they seemed less skilled than what you would assume. This never happened without a very serious name attached to it that I can recall.

How is that possible? Where do people get all this money? Why are they moving when its clear they lack edges? Is this a hedge on prediction markets?

Well little did I know that less than a month than when I began betting mlb I would have my answer.

In 2026 I want to ask yourself something. When is the last time you did something unique?

No googling it first, no looking at what others had to say about it, no planning it with looking for the approval of the internet just free thinking and just went and did it. A hike, a meal, a movie. Could be anything.

Now consider this further. I'm a originator of the number. How did I get to that number? Used to be 2. Connelly and Steele previews and I was off from there. Thanks fellas, I got it from here.

Did you know that if I wanted to I could literally have 67 previews as of right now? Do you know how I came up with 67? That's what AI just told me.

What if I were to use AI to generate my numbers? I have 6 machines and counting currently that will do that for me.

I used to talk to 4 people a week to bounce ideas and numbers off of. Last season I spoke with 13 in one week.

Let's be honest. No one is taking in all these opinions that have confidence within themselves. You don't need to know what claude, pick 6 previews, cfb depth chart, college football 911, Bud, Paulie and Eddie are on in week 1 to know a number is fucking off. Especially when a number is 30 cents off.

I watched a college football handicapper I respect so much in June tell everyone who he loved, a real sleeping giant, a team that could contend for it all and last week mid August told the world they were a good contender in the MWC and could win as many as 8 games this year.

I loved UAB in May. Thought the absence of Dilfer was huge, loved the portal buy in and loved they had so much been through so much adversity and won the final game last year after a teammate stabbed two others in the locker room... They won that game!?! With this coach?!

Then slowly I am pitching the guys on UAB and you can hear the lack of enthusiasm on the other end of the call and every damn preview is more lackluster than the next, rankings show me being off by 30 spots... Fuck UAB I guess, I'm not going to be the only one going broke on the blazers.

However I get this call from someone I know tremendously well who was working with the MLB group who went nuts on chalk and was sure the Brewers were dead and find out that they were convinced they had built a AI so advanced that they'd never have to watch a 9th inning for life... They'll be back next season.

That's not shocking. It's never surprising to me when someone who's brilliant loses or a group of incredibly gifted cappers lose.

What throws me so far off is how hard the work is to win and win every year or attempt to and there's always these outside opinions to consider and there is this new tool, that new tool but there's never any logic being used.

No injuries and markets off 40 cents, nba total is off 5 points 3 hours to tip? No one else noticed? They were just waiting for you? The market is most inneficient to begin the season but you waited until mid season?

I ponder all this and then I remember clear as day that during NBA season when the already mentioned group was moving 3 points on 4 or 5 totals a day contacting my partner in a panic, "are you sure there's no injuries in Detroit, philly and Lakers?!"

Why am I not just firing? Why am I worried about who is doing this? I spent all night making the number, I spent all morning looking at the screen, I kept notifications on for injuries and I'm going to sweat every god damn game that night.

They could tell me jesus planned the game and moses gave someone the score already and I should still bet the other 2 games, I have never read the Bible anyway.

The lack of confidence just lingering for days on end as I watch huge moves and me being paralyzed by fear of this being the week they have it right and no one else does. I'm not alone, they're closing pretty well until they're not and then it's wait, maybe they'll be back but not until... Next season.

What if UAB is actually great though? Hear me out... What if I just asked the wrong people if I was right?!

I hope you are incredibly well .

Thank you for the space as always, Eddie