The Chapters Of A CFB Season

There was a time not long ago I was working with a group and they started calling me a savant.

There was this brief moment where I believed that nonsense, while working 45 hours a week to get to a final number and sweating 20 hours a week of games. Slowest savant you've ever met.

As all of you know I work out of a notebook and I've described what goes into the notebook and how that process evolved every year. There's more info than ever, therefore there has to be more notes.

Me and my wife just completed the dissection of last season and it dawned on me that I've never openly discussed how a season progresses through time. Let's get into it.

August 1st it's time. All that work of new coaches, 4500 players tracked through the portal, tempo changes, calls with the group. It all comes down to the first 16 hours.

First draft of numbers. 50-100 50 being the lowest and 100 being the highest. I've gone higher than 100 once and below 50 twice in 20 years. These are my power numbers.

Starts off in tiers Tier 1 100-93 Tier 2 93-86 Tier 3 86-79 And so on.

Then comes base totals This is easier for me personally. I'm a totals guy so this is more muscle memory. Know your strengths. How much was last year's QB better or worst? Make that number. OL/DL has a ceiling number and a floor number.

I'm looking for quotes about changes constantly. System, roster, staff, positional, pace, stadium, quarterback. There is no worst feeling on earth than the game starts and there's some shenanigans I didn't account for after staring at the same funky 52 games for 50 hours. I want reliable information, I'll dig for it.

August 5th I go back for seconds. So I have Rice and UCF (these are just examples, stay out of my DMs yelling at me UCF guy) in the same tier is that right? If not how much is it wrong? 2 points, 3, a TD?! These are just logic based problems. Eight hours of planning attacks. USC is 6 points better than Iowa? Well cover me in hawkeye gear. Can't be 6, can it?

10 days of this and constant calls with the 3 or 4 people who I trust with my life (let's face it I'm not going to have one for 17 weeks anyway) who I'm giving what I have and they give me what they have.

I do not want agreement. People misconceive this. I want to challenge your comfort and vice versa preseason so in 2 weeks until January when we agree, that confidence grows into confident wagers.

Season starts. Week 0 and week 1. I'm watching every second live or on replay. People say the dumbest shit on the internet nowadays. I'm not convinced the most ignorant take is, "you don't learn anything watching games' they likely should bet more and realize what it is they likely miss by not doing so.

Every team gets a chart. I have 4 key factors, simple as hell. Strengths and weaknesses or concerns. If my strengths of a team are off or my concerns are dead off, a box score is never catching it.

Weeks 1-3 has the most anamolies but also it's the largest data set to learn from. I can make money on reliable coaches and roster construction. How many programs have that nowadays? I'm watching, taking notes, tracking every stat I can. This is where I want to be wrong if I'm going to be. I can adjust now, weeks 10-14 not as much.

I'm moving now. Up and down, I'm desperate to find out what I'm missing. Small moves. 3 is the absolute most I've ever moved a teams power number in 2 weeks barring injury. There is nothing worst where you are chasing your own lost money with one particular team all season.

Small adjustments. If I'm in action every single week over and over with the same team, there's likely a reason.

I monitor that screen like a nervous itch. I'm seeing if I'm moving and if so correcting that. When did this game move? What are they seeing, is that a fake, injury? If it moves this much, when do I get involved?

Week 4 my wife breaks it down for me. She brings out the dreaded Excel sheet. You're closing great on Clemson, you are getting crushed on SjSu totals. We don't focus on wins and losses just CLV and 2 minute variance until week 6. Sample size issues plus I know in 3 weeks if I'm up or down.

Week 4 is where things change. Are you ready for the change? You have to adjust here. Why would Alabama who has beaten the snot out of Charlotte, FCS st. Marys be the same total in conference? Can you find the right number and fire on it before others?

In conference is where coaching matters the most. What's my strength? Coaches. They know each other and if I did my work correctly I know what they want to do, how they want to execute.

Injuries are piling up. I begin spending Monday's monitoring the injury wire more than the odds screen. If I can beat that injury news, I'm solving more than knowing someone likes CMU on Wednesday.

It's October now and that means weather is happening. I have a lot of weather ideas that others don't share. I can find the difference of opinion.

Week 7 first review. W/L CLV end game W/L Team by team. Conference by conference. Volume checks. It is all there. Pour over it for days. Figure it out. Every team has a story. Adjust accordingly.

Weeks 8-11 We are grinding now. Don't let anyone tell you this is not a fucking job. Tuesday through Saturday I'm watching games, tracking everything, listening to every presser. Make or break a season time. The market is getting tighter, there's no secrets left. UNT is a over and Miami Fl is a under, all that shit is dead.

It's can you make a great number, adjust on the fly and stay comfortable when everyone sees what you see? What do I see differently? A entire lot truthfully, this is the part of the season I prefer.

Weeks 12- championship week 100% subjective reads here. Dead teams, coaches who are being fired, has this team quit, who's too hurt to compete, can they make a bowl/do they care, are they in the playoff picture? Last chance to pick on the worst teams of 2025 etc. Clv goes down here. Profits should go up, if you're focused.

Bowl season and playoffs This is a entirely new season in some cases. You gotta move quick and you have to guess some. No one is waiting for you to get it in while the QB decides if he's coming back or if the LT or DB wants to showcase his talent one more game.

Playoffs are always a sad thing for me. It's the David vs Goliath where David has been taking steroids for 2 years beating up David who has a decent treadmill. For whatever reason everyone has decided to hate David.

The championship game happens while I'm sweating NBA bets. I watch the confetti and the speeches and a week later... I go to office Depot and pick out a new notebook.

I wouldn't have it any other way.

I hope you are incredibly well. Thank you for the space as always, Eddie