The 15% Rule

I recall a time when my mentor called me at 1 AM and was out of breathe and in a bit of a panic. He kept telling me he was cursed. He couldn't win, it was impossible. Every OT if he survived would go to a shootout and lights out. Over and over.

I had been gambling my entire adult life. I had been around gamblers both good and bad, I had never witnessed anything like it.

His bankroll before that season began was mythical to me. I would log into his credit accounts and see numbers that would buy homes. I would put my little NBA action every morning (I was on the tiny freeroll) and that was winning but it was pebbles where boulders once laid as the winter months moved to spring.

Winning days weren't uncommon but the celebrating them was. We both knew it was a dead season and the man who ruled the NHL screen and could get the best of any number by a quick press of submit or phone call at anytime of day was just attempting to make up ground.

21 Overtimes IN A ROW you can still look up the account on Twitter and see where he would begin his plea for no OT, the OT began the team he needed he would tweet and the silence after. I never understood the need for the public to be in on the cruelty.

That summer the work really began for both of us. I was all in on sports. I would fly out for the WSOP and play the bigger cash games as much as I would allow myself but I wanted to leave cards. I really didn't realize that at the time but in this life if you're half in, your bankroll will dictate a lot of decisions.

I had won for a year straight. MLB. CFB and NBA but I played the credit game as I was stretching my bankroll to ensure I still had a poker bankroll to fall back on. I didn't trust sports as the sharp community was the opposite as of now. No one wanted anyone to know they made money. The one dude who I was relying on just lost 21 overtimes in a row. Let's call it a leap of faith.

That summer after he really crushed the playoffs to earn back some confidence and most of his bankroll. We talked about all of it. The craziness of the downswing, the loathing, the beast that was 15%.

Do you know why I work 10 hours a day on CFB in April, May etc. it's because I'm doing everything I can to cut that 15% down, to avoid it. If I can just figure out this coordinator, these portal adds, how much money does this program have... 15% might only become 12%.

If I can crush the close and do it often enough I'm now at 11% and if I can do all this then maybe I can sleep on a Thursday in October.

What's the best superpower you have ever heard of a pro handicapper say he has? I had the biggest bettor I know tell me that his was... He just doesn't care about losses. Doesn't matter to him.

I have not been right since hearing that. It's been two years and I think about it once a week minimum. I can call him anytime to ask how he got here but I already know.

The 15% is end game variance if you haven't figured it out yet.

If you're really solid. You are working your ass off and you have good confidence and however you got here, it's all starting to click. You see the screen well, preseason reads were good. You're going to win 45% of games no sweat, games are over before the 4th begins.

The flip side is 40% are just dead losers. Game started and you were dead. Shit happens, moving on. Nothing you can do there. Someone had to win and in these games, that someone was not you.

Now the 15% you can negotiate this number up or down. Get lazy, try some cute shit, skip preseason full prep, make numbers on the fly, take a week off from tracking anything, etc it's likely gonna go up. I should state this is just my opinion, based on some pure miserable memories mixed in. You can have seasons where it was just sweaty... Dry sauna stuff.

This 15% is the slop that keeps you up at night. The double OT that happens when you had 3 points the best of it. The missed FT to lose by a hook, the missed extra point in the first quarter that of course ends up mattering.

The miracle 3 to give you the W, the missed 28 yarder to avoid OT, the coach who forgot he had a timeout and let his player take a 62 footer with 3 seconds left. It goes both ways... So I've heard!

The results based thinking you swore you would conquer at some point and 15 years later it's still entrenched in every ounce of your existence on a cruel Monday. That's the 15%.

Whether it's 21 OTs in a row or losing 13 flips in poker while being ahead by no less than 8%, whether it's losing 26 unders to OT in a season of only 52 OTs in a entire season and your not even much of a under bettor it never gets easier.

I remember that summer more than maybe any other where this man would call and we would just plan out a season. One was planning a comeback and the other a future.

The 15% was etched in my head forever. Can you handle the 15% swings night by night, over and over? What if it goes up to 30% despite all the preparation for it? Could you handle that?

I'm a emotional winner and loser. I think I'm a happier winner than most and a horror show of a extended loser. I used to be ashamed of both. I think I'm too seasoned to be ashamed of much but being emotional over huge financial swings is likely to ever be something I just don't care about.

I've tracked 2 minute variance for 5 years consistently. The most telling thing is that when you really comb through a season you'll notice the end games will dictate so much than you realize. Not just results but the future decisions. That's the worst when you realize that.

The most scary thing about talking with a lot incredibly intelligent men and women who went bust and went away is how many just comfortably accepted their fate. No kicking or screaming they just faded away to case money and gave up.

The results don't make or break you. How you handle the 15% will.

I hope you are incredibly well and every closer that enters the 9th gives you exactly what you need from him.

Thank you for the space as always, Eddie