[7/7/23] #32 - Trial and A Lot Of Error

[7/7/23] Trial and A Lot Of Error

I'm working a minimum of 40 hours a week currently. I rarely leave my office and I haven't turned my work computer on since mid May.

I have digested more terrible, mediocre and great YouTube previews of different college teams in different versions. I've rewrote 4 magazines, almost every sentence that I think might be pertinent.

My goal is to have numbers done by July 20th this year. 2 weeks earlier than normal. The market dictates such things and I doubt it's going to wait for me.

I've been at it since 3 days after the championship game. More teams, more turnover in coaches and players alike.

Many people have suggested easier methods in their mind or explained to me how much time I'm wasting with this tedious process without ever considering that I LOVE my process.

If there was no betting and I was just learning about a sport, everything possible daily that would be amazing. I also fall in love with the market equally soon enough though.

There are many times in the past where I just tackled a sport with no prep just to experiment and see what hairpin idea I could incorporate into my portfolio. There have been 3 or 4 that have worked in the last dozen years or so. The rest?

Walls greatest hits of Failures.

MLB was the first sport I bet seriously. This one has a list of so many bad ideas, I'm unsure where to begin.

Fading teams who got walked off or lost in extras. They just wouldn't be able to bounce back mentally was the theory.

Sunday night hangover. Fading teams on Monday who played a ESPN Sunday night game because less eyes would be on them and they got to bed later than their opponent.

Sunday unders. Apparently this was a golden angle for decades where teams would remove a couple of key players from the lineup and players were mostly tired and many teams had Monday off so they wouldn't hit as well... I'm guessing at the theory. Never worked out for me, pretty good sample size too.

The most foolish was dogs only or plus money totals. I mean I was really gonna rewrite who bookmakers feared with this one. Double downed not long removed from giving up betting only + money to never laying above $2 haha.

Imagine spending all that time to make numbers and then changing price points and discrepancy points... I did that!

NHL I only bet seriously for 2 seasons. I felt it was incredibly tough to deal with the variance of overtimes and shootouts. I had small winning seasons in both, miracles.

Blindly betting overs on all backup goalies. This was factored into the line obviously but this was around the time that teams were experimenting with pulling the goalie earlier. Awful results as you can guess.

NFL Embarrassing one here. This was a RLM system that became a 13 point 4 team teaser -130. I forgot about this one. My thinking was if you were faking a NFL side your name had to be Billy and that was good enough for me. Low volume, took one loss a week to wipe out system.. never failed.

NBA I've had a few ridiculous thoughts turn into bets every year I'm sure. Ref betting was probably the ultimate hilarious one. I thought some jabroni ref was a dead over with a heavy whistle. I was literally moving totals a full possession on this guy. Dead under teams, I apologize to you top down guys.. my bad. Guy called 14 straight unders. Did we cover martingaling yet?

Mostly meaningless players I swore meant something that are comical as hell now. Austin Rivers and Andre Drummond come to mind top of my head.

College Football As much as I've gotten right over the years, I have equally been willing to try some pretty wild experiments.

Snow games of any kind. Wind could be 60 MPH. I was convinced the market was wrong on all weather for around a season but especially snow!

My feeling was that no one could tackle and they couldn't spot the ball accurately and also turnovers with slippery hands would cause more short fields. Allowing chaos overs!

One season I was going to back ats teams with highly ranked Special teams because no one else was looking at this incredibly important aspect of the game. Most great teams also had great special teams and then some shitty teams only had a All American kicker or something. That was pretty costly I think.

Got really into studying attendance one season. I thought winning was directly correlated to how many people showed up to a game. I think marshall won cusa in front of 11 people the year I tried to fluctuate HFA's.

This is just sports. I could write a entire seperate entry on mistaking a edge, losing outs out of greed, fumbling a bag in all kinds of different ways. It's all a lesson. This game never stops with the lessons thankfully.

There's so many ways to win. There's no rules and that's what makes it incredible. It's the challenge that interests all of us.

I will never stop trying to think outside of the box and listen to approaches that have worked or failed.

I'm really ingrained in make a number, bet a number and beat a number at this stage but with this new era of transfers, rule changes and NIL...

I hope you are on the run of your life or about to begin it. Thanks as always for the space sincerely, Eddie