#36 - Coaches
By Eddie Walls
Coaches
I think I've studied every aspect of sports and betting of different sports I've devoted (too much) time to.
Every year the carousel brings us a new opportunity of how to approach a coach.
My partner in crime is obsessed with tracking my results. She has excel tabs for all 133 cfb teams, 30 NBA teams.
She has sheets for every damn category you can think of. A typical Monday I'll receive a text, "no more clipper unders for 3 games" or just, "Jax st" this means I've lost enough on that team for awhile.
It can't just be normal variance, neutral or negative CLV+loss we have a system. Yes this system we have, it irks me but so does paying figures.
This is the first time I have tracked how I performed on new coaches.
I did fine but I wanted to give you the grade of each hire preseason and how I view it postseason.
In full transparency. While I made money overall on the new coaches my reads early weren't always great. That is really cool when you look at it in that perspective.
Let's start with the most controversial hire in apparently the history of CFB as it seems every writer who was calling for failure is pounding his chest over a collapse. My rating on the left preseason and end on the right.
Sanders- Colorado C/A+ No downside. Bad on field coach who tripled attendance. Got boosters involved. Exceeded win expectancy. Will be gone 2025 and people now know Colorado still has a football team.
Wisconsin- Fickell- A/D Home run hire with a innovative OC. They ran it worst, lost at home to who they shouldnt have. A NFL RB was never used much. The D regressed.
Brohm- Louisville A+/A+ Top 10 coach just beating everyone he should. He's boring good at this point.
Nebraska- Rhule- B/C Nebraska is pretty over the top with directions of their program. Frost was going to fix the offense and Rhule was going to be conservative and fix the D.... At least the offense was among worst in nation. 0dd hire as he is attempting to out BIG the BIG?
Herman- FAU A/F The most experienced team in the nation just needed a good coach. Lane 2.23. Fau actually regressed and must rebuild as they graduate 15 starters.
Poggi- Charlotte B/B Didn't improve the team but was entertaining and is gonna outspend half the g5 with portal buys I feel. He says more ridiculous stuff than Deion and I love it.
Arnett- Miss st C/F Who let him hire his OC and why would they get rid of the air raid??
Freeze-Auburn C/B Exceeded expectations but he's so bizarre. Loses to NM state, should have lost to Cal and close call losses to Alabama and UGA. Still much improved from a year ago.
Taylor-Stanford C/B It's clear he knows how to coach but it's such a hard job I have no idea how good or bad he is. Still had biggest comeback I can recall and recruiting great so far.
Key- Ga tech D/A They had such a list of great candidates based off 4 games he went 2-2 in. GT is bowling first time in 5 years and were ultra competitive throughout their entire schedule.
Chadwell- Liberty B/A+ How would he do without McCall? Yeah NY6 bowl possible in year one while beating everyone by 20+.
Dillingham- A/D Young hire who's going to have a insanely intriguing offense and a 5* Fr QB and proven Skill guys. I know in week 1 vs NAU when they weren't scoring. Injuries didn't help but the O never did anything vs bad teams either.
Wilson- Tulsa B/D He would score, score and make Tulsa fun again even if they did lose... They lost but went faster so you didn't have to watch for as long at least.
Kinne- Texas St. B/B They're in a bowl which is huge but they collapsed for stretches and pretty sure getting SEC 4* QBs isn't sustainable multiple years.
Odom- UNLV C/A+ I knew UNLV would be improved and could actually make a bowl this year. Mind blown that Barry Odom is on the cusp of MWC championship and a major bowl berth. Glad I was wrong here.
Golesh- USF- A/A I like coaches who don't try to fix a broken program all at once. Tennessee misses him
Dilfer-UAB F/C No experience in coaching besides high school and hired his DC from said HS? He found a QB and they scored some. He looked like a average first year head coach and there might be some upside here.
Walters- Purdue B/C The offense was better than the defense which he is hands on with. I never felt wowed at any point by them. Hard job, long way to go.
Burns- Kent St C/C Toughest job and replacing a really great coach with almost no returning production? He won a game, at least.
Newberry- Navy D/C Whatever reason they're giving for changing the offense is ridiculous. See Air Force. The D also regressed. They exceeded expectations regardless have to give some credit.
Morris- UNT B/D The D just can't regress this much unless the offense can score every single possession. Forced good coach out for a lower tier version of Litrell.
Beck- Coastal Carolina F/B I am still dumbfounded how you go from Chadwell to Tim Beck. Last I checked Beck had been fired from absolutely everywhere. You had McCall and a loaded offense... Beck was a win away from playing in Sunbelt Champ game... They lost by 50 at home to JMU but overall much better than I would have guessed. The defense improved and the offense was mediocre but also dealt with a mash unit of injuries.
Predicting first year coaches isn't easy. It can be profitable depending on how you want to use your opinion.
I had a bad feel for the coaches as you can clearly see. Only a couple (thankfully) cost me money overall this season. One was the most profitable of any coach in FBS all season.
It's how quickly you can pivot your opinion and change your numbers on every team and coach. I struggle just like everyone on certain teams.
I have coaches who ill never figure out. Norvell at Nevada/CSU has cost me more than I'm willing to admit to myself.
Next week we will talk playoffs, coaches of the year by conference and all kinds of fun stuff.
Truthfully I always get a little sad when seasons end and I've always wanted to talk college football publicly a little more recently.
I hope you are terrific and good luck this weekend. Thanks for the space as always, Eddie