[3/6/24] #46 - The Death of A Originator

[3/6/24] The Death of A Originator

The worst thing that can happen to a winner is losing their gamble- Phil Ivey

I've never had the ability to control certain aspects of my gamble if being honest.

I've never thrown dice, played a slot machine, couldn't exactly tell you how 90% of table games work.

I know that I've spent too many nights asking myself, "how did this lose?" Calculating my CLV and wondering, "Do I have a edge or is this just normal variance?" And then I repeat that night until the sunlight appears again.

However that's not what many originators I have known have done.

I've had partners and friends where I've at times thought oh no, they're heading towards Bustville population Infinity.

Some turned it around and others welp, not so much.

There's nothing I avoid more than knowing what others are on. Let's be clear if you're a partner and it's just us. I'd prefer to know any thought you have on any game, how life is going, the dogs are still good etc.

If I'm on Twitter and someone is posting plays or there's constant conversations about who's on what... I'm likely to mute, unfollow and perhaps ignore any conversation involving what and who's on what.

I take pride in making numbers and hell I devote too many hours a day to start wondering what Dr. Bob, Tailgate tent etc are on in College football and same goes for NBA and all the crushers in that market.

It was a lesson learned by losing a MLB season.

It started off way back in the forum days of RX and eog. In between the fights of random posters was this man posting his MLB every morning with massive CLV on MLs and I was cruising with totals and it seemed like a god send as this crusher would post his plays and win week after week.

Suddenly he started losing CLV in a pretty massive way and rapidly all profits were escaping him (& me) It was avalanche of losses followed by extreme volume. Do I keep following, do I track and see what holds in the next few weeks?

I could make money lines and slowly realized his numbers were just awful but he had this 5 week run and surely he would turn it around. Id make numbers and see if there were any matches and that would be a play.

Right around from +35 to +5 units he just quit! How could he?? Now I don't even know if I have winners, I have no confirmation.

I would search forum after forum looking for others like him. Never quite trusting myself until july only to see my CLV was pretty damn good and results weren't bad at all. Still I would ask dink, waz, Cory, Cory's mom etc. what they were on. I needed that confirmation biase.

The best originator I had ever met at the time I discovered would create numbers for the next day at 9 am and then watch the screen for openers and track what moved and how aggressive.

He had no interest in betting openers but by the time he was ready to bet he had shaped his numbers to match the moves. He was half brilliant originator and half steam chaser before he finally would hit submit.

He just lost faith for a bit. Think he worked it out eventually as he is among the biggest and better NBA winners of the last 2 decades.

I have to be able to have blinders on but also be completely focused on the task which is to beat the market. I have no control past that.

Everyone is different in this industry. Some originators want to know who, what and when something was bet. I'm of the thought that your numbers will end up being shaded towards theirs even subconsciously on some level.

If those people I respect have a differing opinion slowly my confidence escapes me.

Partnerships have different opinions on lines, plays and games but you have to remain vocal in your opinions. No one wants to be the one dummy who costs everyone but you should also be able to voice opinions and bet independently on those differences otherwise eventually there's one voice and if you're not him/her your eventually tailing someone else's opinion, the group of one.

The last thing I'll add is that I have bought a lot of touts in the past in sports I don't follow.

I started off buying ras CFB which most know. Way way back in the day after oroginating for a year maybe 2 and was told they were the best.

Ed used to answer the phone to take the order and would even sometimes explain something about a play he liked.

I used that info to focus on the mac the next year as they had huge success with buffalo and marshall. I don't think those teams were on my radar before then.

I learned NBA from listening to every word from 2 friends. I couldn't even name 10 players but I wanted so badly to remain in this little chat group that I would spend hours trying to figure out what questions to ask that wouldn't cross a line. They would give me plays but I wanted to know why it was a play without asking.

I would review every boxscore, watch as many games as possible and then ask the why?

You can use others information as a starting point. Surround yourself either online or in person with smarter people than yourself and find out what separates them from yourself and see if you can take a little bit of what they do but unless it's a agreed partnership, don't become reliant on them.

Be a pupil at all times but have the goal to become the professor at some point.

Valleys and peaks in this business... Make sure they're your own if you're working everyday on becoming the best originator you can become.

Thank you as always for the space, Eddie