[1/11/24] #39 - The Logical Handicapper

[1/11/24] The Logical Handicapper

The year was 2013 or 14 I believe. I had beat MLB and college football pretty well. I was semi addicted to scrolling through donbest at random sports and looking at steam and how it fared every night.

I was enamored with edges of all kinds. I would listen to hours of sports talk and betting talk in any capacity I could find it.

I also had a knack of hanging out with smarter people than myself and really just listening. I wanted to absord what they had to say.

I remember specifically talking with a bunch of chess and backgammon players who were so focused on what they played, studied and discovered that I was appalled at how little money there was in that world but how very few acknowledged that being any type of goal.

I came from poker where you keep score with finances. There were exceptions of course. I knew many successful grinders who never moved up in stakes over the years and just enjoyed having a larger edge but I was never really capable of understanding that line of thought.

I dabbled in NBA and when I say dabbled I bet 2 games a night on a 13 game card for too much money with such low volume and was betting mostly trends in a sense. Of course I began to lose.

Scared to admit failure publicly but I reached out to Dink and he introduced me to a really sharp NBA handicapper at the time. I never met the man but he was very helpful in how to look at NBA betting.

He wasn't a modeler, he didn't really make great numbers or have incredible reads on coaches. He did have something that I consider the best quality I see in handicappers.

He was incredibly prepared. On a Monday he was considering how a OT game would affect a team throughout the week. He would consider both sides of every bet thoroughly.

However the more we spoke on the phone one thing became very clear to me. He was the most logical handicapper I'd ever learn from.

The best example of this came late in the season when it was absolutely clear that 5 teams were tanking. They were not only interested in not winning but if they were somehow pulling a minor miracle coaches would sub out all players doing well to ensure the winning would stop.

I was trying to make numbers, beat totals and maintain my clv edge while he was laying -700 up to 1200 (which was insane to me) and then he was round robining, parlaying, betting live when there was a run by the tank team. He was exercising a edge in every way he could find.

I was timid. Always unable to really give equal thoughts on what was a good bet at the time. He would encourage me to broaden how I thought about probability. One team is fighting to make the playoffs and the other team is fighting for a higher pick in the draft so they in many ways have to lose. Why is probability within a number so important to you? I'd have no great answer.

He beat NBA totals. Full game, 1st and 2nd halves as well but again mostly logic based stuff... This team traded away their center and has no rim protection. I have 3 games before the market catches up type of stuff. Line is 16 pretty sure there will be scoring first half, 2nd half not as much I'd imagine, right?

I always saw him as the teacher and me the pupil on our weekly calls in middle of the winter.

I remember him calling me middle of mlb season the next summer and he had a series for me. Indians vs someone. He said bet all 4 on the Indians and he made the point the other team was the worst hitting team in MLB and they'd be facing 4 aces in Cleveland.... Fine tanking teams in NBA but the variance in MLB laying 275 4 games foggetaboutit... Cleveland covered alt runline every game I think. I never bet a penny.

He didn't bet MLB daily just studied the worst and the best waited post April, May probably June for all I know and saw opportunities and exercised them.

As I sit in my office pouring over notes, box scores and weighing injury value to each player there's a man who's made infinitely more than myself using nothing more than common sense.

He also has a incredible amount of confidence and tries to get more out of a bet than most anyone I've ever met.

There's so much talk these days about modeling, number creation, etc etc I know that personally I have lost the duh factor.

As a originator you have to trust your numbers but so many times there is a story to each game that a number isn't going to get me to the promise land of victory. Reading between the line(s) is something every great handicapper has in his or her arsenal.

One night Dink brought him on EOG radio and it became clear to me instantly. He was a chess player looking for new openings, he was trying to look for weakness in his opponent.

He was experimenting with this new move and trying to capitalize on his new advantage that they allowed him. I also think he was just as kooky as many grand masters in that I don't feel like he thought about much of anything else, which is more relatable now but not at the time which I believe is why we stopped speaking past the initial season but I had learned plenty by then. Thank you Stevie.

I hope you are well and every end game goes your way this week. Thank you for the space, Eddie